And So The 2012 Race Begins
Make no mistake, Palin’s bombshell announcement today begins the 2012 race. Barring some Andrew Sullivanesque wildest fantasy of a forthcoming scandalous revelation, there is no other way to read this decision.
My initial instinct is to call this move savvy. The announcement itself tacitly takes advantage of not only the news cycle but the reality that people will now talk about her at every Independence Day July picnic. That’s a smarts not usually seen on the Republican side.
The truth-of-the-matter is that despite modern travel and media, Alaska is effectively out-of-the-way and like Hawaii, not really part of the lower 48. Q.E.D. Had Palin been the Governor of say North Carolina or Oklahoma, I doubt should would have made the same decision, simply because, as she said, her travel would not have placed a burden on the tax-payers. Her cited reasoning might be a pretext, but it is a believable one and honest. Does that cover the coming charge that she’s “a quitter”? Perhaps, but I’m not sure that charge will stick much, except with those who don’t already like her. The problem is, though, that’s not a small minority.
The game for Palin now becomes simple: she’s a draw. Her primary work over the next year and a half will be first and foremost to crisscross the country attending fundraisers and stumping for the Party in as many Congressional seat battles as possible. Despite having an enormous gap in experience, helping Republicans close the gap in 2010 will give her enormous street-cred with the party and buy her no small amount of fellow party-members willing to go to bat for her. Thus, while Gingrich and Romney presently have formidable infrastructures and connections, Palin changes the game on them and makes 2012 about what have you done for me lately, not what might you do for me, especially among operatives and party faithful.
On the national level, her resignation gives her a chance to more aggressively go after the Administration and be the Republican voice of opposition. No one has yet seized this mantle and one of her greatest liabilities in 2008 was her inability to tackle the press and opposition head on. If she’s going to go after Obama, it’ll have to be through traditional media, talk radio and the internet where she must grow a thick skin and effective claws. The jury is still out here on Palin. For my taste, I’ve never liked Palin’s style of public debate because she is the human cliche machine. But in an era where sound-bites dominate, perhaps that’s the best thing. In the short run that’s not a skill that inspires a lot of confidence in me of actually elevating the debate and helping rebuild the Republican brand. It seems her political philosophy is at best an attempt to resuscitate the Reagan Coalition. Obama is so far to the left that it is likely that coalition has one last hurrah left in it. And her “unique ability” to speak to the current medium might just be perfect for that purpose. And while it certainly doesn’t usher in a reborn Republican brand, it might help revive one that’ll be “just strong enough” in 2012.
Again, barring a shocking revelation, this move is a huge gamble but one that cany pay off. Look, the left and mainstream media knows she can be a real populist threat to Obama. Why else would Andrew Sullivan spend so much time concocting deranged theories about her child if she weren’t so? I can’t really say at this point if she is my cup of tea, but the truth-of-the-matter is that Republicans, especially conservatives, likely will rally around one candidate early rather than fragment among several and get another RINO running for President.
And, hey, if doesn’t work out for her, she can certainly dye her hair blond and go work for Fox News.
Happy Independence Day Everyone!
“It’s wrong to speculate, but Palin is forcing speculation.”
The Anchoress
Alberto, I like Sarah Palin on a lot of levels, but I am not sure you are correct. Hey, I hope I am wrong. But as a polticial decision I think this does not bode well for her. And if it was a personal decision to get out of politics for personal attacks, that is unfortunate (although I support her and understand why she would put her family first).
Capt. Ed a bit harsh, I would have expected this from Allah.
I’d certainly like to hear from more The Anchoress on this one.
I am offering a “best case scenario” read of this with the current available information.
This is bizarre on many levels. I definitely disagree with the notion that she calculated this to “take advantage of the news cycle.” It’s a three-day weekend and people generally don’t pay attention to the news at all on three-day weekends unless it’s an event of epic proportions (this aint it).
Also, inasmuch as experience was one of the top criticisms of her, this is a very odd move if she has immediate presidential aspirations. And, although you pooh pooh the notion, people (not just liberals or democrats) will question her commitment to service and the people if she is willing to bail on elected office.
The occam razor answer is she and her family had enough of the constant false and slanderous attacks. If that is the reason, I do not blame her for putting her family first.
I see a bright future for her…possibly in cable television.
Joe–I agree. The real question is whether Huckabee is in danger of getting bumped from the Fox News lineup.
Just read the transcript of her remarks. She’s bonkers. Says she won’t take the quitter’s way out; instead she’ll quit. (Also seems to take a jab at Sanford.)
She just ensured she’ll be a jokey little footnote in history. Unless she wins the GOP nomination in 2012, in which case they’ll write books about “The Woman Who Destroyed the GOP.”
Worst sign for her: Bill Kristol thinks “it might pay off.”
It strikes me as strange as McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign when the economic crisis came to the fore.
After watching Republicans for many years, I can better understand Jane Goodall’s fascination with her subjects.
I don’t really see how this will help Palin. Having resigned her governorship after only 2 years and change, I don’t think she’ll have the experience to legitimately contend for the Presidency, assuming that is what she wants.
Of course, others have gained high office with very little experience as well…so I guess it’s not impossible. Gov. Pawlenty is looking better and better all the time, should he choose to run for President. His rivals are doing a good job of eliminating themselves.
I like Palin as a person quite a bit, but I just can’t see her as President, especially after the hatchet job the media has done on her and her family.