On August 28, I posted this essay, in which I used the (thus far) gross meteorological miscalculation of the 2006 hurricane season to cast aspersions on those (particularly the global warming alarmists) who attempt to forecast climactic conditions decades from now.
Today, courtesy of this post by Iain Murray at National Review Online’s The Corner, I see that the climate change jihadis are not letting the facts get in the way of their argument. Murray’s piece links to this article in today’s Houston Chronicle, titled “Valid science or a perfect storm for controversy? Theory that warming spawns more hurricanes gains support but still has skeptics”. In it, reporter Eric Berger details the release on Monday of a research paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluding that “human burning of fossil fuels has warmed the oceans, providing the fuel for tropical cyclones to become monster hurricanes.” Berger quotes Tom Wigley, one of the authors of the paper and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, as saying, “The work that we’ve done closes the loop”. What loop? The one that says that humans are the “primary driving force behind increased hurricane activity”, according to Robert Correll, a senior fellow of the American Meteorological Society.
To his credit, reporter Berger then gives us the other side of the story. It turns out that loopy is an appropriate characterization of Wigley, et al.’s report:
[S]ome researchers who study the complicated interplay between hurricanes and global warming suggest little has changed in the last few months to suggest that scientists have come to a consensus.
“Honestly, I don’t think anyone’s changed their mind,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. “To me, this looks like the same people saying the same thing over and over again.”
Earlier this year, Klotzbach published a paper suggesting that, despite a rise in ocean temperatures during the last 20 years, hurricane activity worldwide has decreased.
Klotzbach is not alone:
Some environmental groups, including the U.S. Climate Emergency Council, called for National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield and other officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to resign, saying they were covering up evidence linking global warming to hurricanes.
“I can honestly say that no one in NOAA, or anywhere in the government for that matter, has contacted me to tell me how to respond to the issue of what effects global warming might have on hurricanes,” Mayfield said earlier this summer.
Klotzbach, Mayfield and others say the data simply don’t exist to support the conclusion.
Add National Hurricane Center scientist Chris Landsea to the list of the unimpressed as well:
[L]andsea said warmer water doesn’t lead necessarily to stronger hurricanes.
“I agree with the paper’s conclusion that the warming trend in the tropical oceans is likely due, at least in part, to greenhouse gases,” Landsea said. “But this paper certainly isn’t the ‘key link’ between hurricanes and climate change. Its focus is on something that I thought was settled quite some time ago.”
The skepticism is not limited to the United States:
Johnny Chan, a hurricane researcher at the City University of Hong Kong, has studied the effect of sea-surface temperatures on hurricanes that form in the Pacific.
Chan said his research has shown that in years when Pacific sea temperatures are higher than normal, there tend to be fewer, and less-intense hurricanes.
“The problem with these guys is that they keep focusing on sea surface temperatures, and sea surface temperatures alone,” Chan said. “For the Pacific, I can confidently say that they are wrong if they latch onto sea surface temperatures and nothing else.”
What I found remarkable about Berger’s article was his complete omission of any reference to the 2006 hurricane season. If anthropogenic global warming / production of greenhouse gases / “human activity” is driving more frequent and more intense hurricanes, then WHERE ARE THEY? Answer: Not here, and, according to this September 1, 2006 hurricane season update from Klotzbach and his colleagues at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, not on their way:
We now anticipate that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season will be considerably less active than the seasonal activity we anticipated in our earlier forecasts and in our updated 3 August forecast. We now expect that the 2006 hurricane season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average. This is due to an unexpected increase in tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness (with large amounts of African dust) and a continued trend towards El Niño-like conditions in the eastern and central Pacific.
Of course, I would expect the climate change / global warming Chicken Littles to now seize on the absence of hurricanes as evidence to support their thesis that Evil Mankind is despoiling Mother Earth. “Large amounts of African dust preventing hurricanes from forming?! See, it is global warming leading to the growth of the Sahara. Seize their SUVs now!”
As an aside, it appears that I was mistaken where, in prior post, I wrote that the field of hurricane research was “relatively non-politicized.” As the Houston Chronicle story and this post from Roger Pielke, Jr. make clear, it appears that hurricane research can be every bit as political as research into the issues of anthropogenic global warming / climate change. The good news is that where we’ll likely not live to see the debunking of The Day After Tomorrow fraud, we can observe right now what appears to be the disproving of the “global warming = more frequent hurricanes” canard.